《大行報告》摩通:內房股風險回報變得非常吸引
摩根大通表示,在目前市況下內房股具防禦性,風險回報非常吸引,相信即使房地產銷情受疫情影響而有所停滯,但預期現時大部分售樓處已重新開放,項目亦多已復工,相信4月份銷售將恢復按年增長。
報告指出,今年首兩個月房地產銷售數據表現疲弱,商品住宅銷售額按年下降39%,土地銷售亦跌27%,符合市場預期,惟整體樓價仍升7%,相信是由於調控政策下市場庫存得到良好控制所致,令發展商縱然面對需求疲軟也無須急於降價。該行又指,疫情未會在根本上改變房地產市場供需,因此預期需求最快在6月份會出現強勁反彈,維持對全年銷售和建築活動預測不變。
該行認為,地方政府將因應市況陸續推出支持措施,以減輕開發商財務風險,因此內房商大幅減價機會不大,預期今年全國平均售價將按年增長6%,至每平方米約8,000元人民幣。
摩通認為,房地產行業相對而言更具防禦性,因內地住房需求強勁,且市場受惠於信貸寬鬆的金融環境,首選估值較低及業績期前後具有積極催化劑的股票,大型房企中看好萬科企業(02202.HK)、中海外(00688.HK)、碧桂園(02007.HK)、融創中國(01918.HK);中型股首選富力地產(02777.HK)、世茂房地產(00813.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK);小型股選擇合景泰富(01813.HK)、中駿集團(01966.HK)及美的置業(03990.HK)。
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