《大行报告》摩通:内房股风险回报变得非常吸引
摩根大通表示,在目前市况下内房股具防御性,风险回报非常吸引,相信即使房地产销情受疫情影响而有所停滞,但预期现时大部分售楼处已重新开放,项目亦多已复工,相信4月份销售将恢复按年增长。
报告指出,今年首两个月房地产销售数据表现疲弱,商品住宅销售额按年下降39%,土地销售亦跌27%,符合市场预期,惟整体楼价仍升7%,相信是由於调控政策下市场库存得到良好控制所致,令发展商纵然面对需求疲软也无须急於降价。该行又指,疫情未会在根本上改变房地产市场供需,因此预期需求最快在6月份会出现强劲反弹,维持对全年销售和建筑活动预测不变。
该行认为,地方政府将因应市况陆续推出支持措施,以减轻开发商财务风险,因此内房商大幅减价机会不大,预期今年全国平均售价将按年增长6%,至每平方米约8,000元人民币。
摩通认为,房地产行业相对而言更具防御性,因内地住房需求强劲,且市场受惠於信贷宽松的金融环境,首选估值较低及业绩期前後具有积极催化剂的股票,大型房企中看好万科企业(02202.HK)、中海外(00688.HK)、碧桂园(02007.HK)、融创中国(01918.HK);中型股首选富力地产(02777.HK)、世茂房地产(00813.HK)、旭辉(00884.HK);小型股选择合景泰富(01813.HK)、中骏集团(01966.HK)及美的置业(03990.HK)。
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