《大行报告》大摩下调联通(00762.HK)目标价至8元 中电信(00728.HK)降至3.6元
大摩发表研究报告,重申对中移动(00941.HK)和铁塔(00788.HK)「增持」评级,而中移动为该行的行业首选。大摩料铁塔去年末季业绩稳固及2020年展望正面,将巩固目前铁塔租赁收费条款直至2022年。
该行认为中移动估值低廉,公司的资本开资指引、5G下的ARPU(每月每用户收入)提升,及5G净上客等可为成为股价催化剂。中移动目前已进入5G估值提升的周期,料2019-22年盈利和派息的年复合增长率为5%,相信目前6%的周息率给予股价支持。
该行指,相信5G ARPU提升及国内竞争环境改善,将对整个行业有利,目前予所有内地电讯商「增持」评级。该行假设5G ARPU提升可以有助提升整体行业服务费收入在2019-2022年达到年复合增长率3%,同时行业的竞争不如3G/4G时严重,三大电讯商亦无意大力增加市占率。
该行又指,预期5G市场市占率会稳定,其中中联通(00762.HK)和中电信(00728.HK)会增加市场份额。但基於收入增长较慢,该行下调联通及中电信盈利预测及目标价,因认为中移动在5G周期中受惠相对较多。对於中电信,该行下调其2019-21年盈测2.2%/2.4%/0.2%,每股派息预期亦调低至0.125/0.125/0.13元,目标价由3.8元降至3.6元。相似地,该行调低联通盈利10%/11%/8%,股息预期作相同幅度下调,目标价由8.5元降至8元。
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