《大行報告》大摩下調聯通(00762.HK)目標價至8元 中電信(00728.HK)降至3.6元
大摩發表研究報告,重申對中移動(00941.HK)和鐵塔(00788.HK)「增持」評級,而中移動為該行的行業首選。大摩料鐵塔去年末季業績穩固及2020年展望正面,將鞏固目前鐵塔租賃收費條款直至2022年。
該行認為中移動估值低廉,公司的資本開資指引、5G下的ARPU(每月每用戶收入)提升,及5G淨上客等可為成為股價催化劑。中移動目前已進入5G估值提升的周期,料2019-22年盈利和派息的年複合增長率為5%,相信目前6%的周息率給予股價支持。
該行指,相信5G ARPU提升及國內競爭環境改善,將對整個行業有利,目前予所有內地電訊商「增持」評級。該行假設5G ARPU提升可以有助提升整體行業服務費收入在2019-2022年達到年複合增長率3%,同時行業的競爭不如3G/4G時嚴重,三大電訊商亦無意大力增加市佔率。
該行又指,預期5G市場市佔率會穩定,其中中聯通(00762.HK)和中電信(00728.HK)會增加市場份額。但基於收入增長較慢,該行下調聯通及中電信盈利預測及目標價,因認為中移動在5G周期中受惠相對較多。對於中電信,該行下調其2019-21年盈測2.2%/2.4%/0.2%,每股派息預期亦調低至0.125/0.125/0.13元,目標價由3.8元降至3.6元。相似地,該行調低聯通盈利10%/11%/8%,股息預期作相同幅度下調,目標價由8.5元降至8元。
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