華興資本:首次覆蓋給予平安好醫生(1833.HK) “買入”評級 目標價100港元
華興資本今日發研報稱,平安好醫生(1833.HK)在新的跑道上,預計其在政策支持下有實質性增長,特別是將在線服務納入國家醫保目錄報銷。平安好醫生的在線醫療服務部門將受益於行業增長,並可能成為下一個盈利驅動因素。首次覆蓋並予平安好醫生(1833.HK) “買入”評級,目標價100港元。
該行指出,公司擁有線上線下平台協同的閉環醫療生態系統,業務涵蓋在線醫療服務、消費醫療、健康商城、健康管理與健康互動四大領域。線上平台,配備先進的人工智能技術,與線下藥店合作,實現協同閉環生態。該行預計公司的在線醫療服務部門將在行業蓬勃發展的基礎上穩步增長。據諮詢公司Frost&Sullivan和艾瑞諮詢估計,中國在線諮詢行業的市場規模將從2016年的110億元人民幣擴大到2020年的330億元人民幣(複合年均增長率為32%)。
此外,公司亦受益於中國對互聯網醫療的日益認可。華興資本認為互聯網醫療行業的發展符合中國政府的醫療改革,因為:1)緩解國內醫療資源供應不足和分配不均;2)減少醫療支出;3)促進分級醫療救治體系的實施。因此,該行期待更多的扶持政策。特別是在2019年8月宣佈的納入國家醫保目錄計劃中加入在線醫療產品和服務,對該行業是一個強有力的推動。該行認為,作為行業領軍企業,平安醫療將在未來幾年受益於銷量和ASP的擴張。同時,新冠肺炎疫情的爆發進一步促進了患者尋求在線醫療諮詢,該行認為這可能會導致線下消費者的行為轉向在線平台。
該行還指,平安好醫生擁有穩健的盈利增長預期。鑑於高利潤的在線醫療服務部門的強勁增長和政策的推動,預計公司的毛利率將從2019年的23%大幅提高到2021年的29%,並預計2022年將實現盈虧平衡。
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