吉利汽車(00175.HK)：2月銷量受疫情拖累，3月有望進入恢復期，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
事件。公司公告，二月批發銷量21168輛，同比下滑75%。
二月銷量受疫情影響，銷量降幅略好於行業。公司2月銷量同比大幅下滑，主要受到疫情的因素的干擾。按車型分類，公司轎車、SUV及MPV總銷量分別為8321輛、11934輛及913輛。此外，領克品牌銷量2066輛，同比下滑72%，佔公司銷量比例為9.76%，同比提升1.05PCT。行業層面，乘聯會2月行業批售銷量同比-82%，公司作為自主龍頭，銷量降幅好於行業水平，預計2月市佔率仍有提升。
行業供需逐步恢復，我們對3月銷量持相對樂觀態度。目前行業供需逐步恢復，疫情的影響邊際弱化，我們對行業3月銷量持相對樂觀態度。1）供給端，據工信部，截至3月3日，16家重點整車集團主要生產基地開工率已達84.1%，員工復崗率達到66.5%，除重點疫區外，汽車行業企業基本實現復工復產，全國8000多家汽車經銷商的綜合復工率已達37.3%，門店復工率74.7%。2）需求端，3月5日，商務部舉行網上例行發佈會，2月下旬重點監測1000家零售企業，日均銷售額比2月中旬增長了5.6%，其中，汽車需求上升反彈增長較為明顯，環比增幅達14.8%。作為目前車型佈局最全的自主龍頭，行業企穩的背景下，公司有望優先受益。
公司擬與沃爾沃重組資產，增厚體量與品牌。公司2月10日公告，管理層正在與沃爾沃汽車初步業務合併重組的可能性，擬保留吉利、沃爾沃、領克與極星品牌的獨特性，將合併後業務於香港及斯德哥爾摩上市。未來隨着公司與沃爾沃，在動力總成與平台化技術方面合作的進一步深入，疊加吉利（中低端）+領克（中高端）+沃爾沃（豪華）強大的品牌佈局與規模優勢，公司將進一步夯實一線車企地位。中長期看，雙方有望共享產業鏈，吉利的供應鏈成本優勢與沃爾沃標準化供應鏈管理能力結合，有望最大效益提升供應鏈品質並降低成本，對單一零部件而言採購體量有望從百萬量級提升到兩百萬量級，規模優勢明顯。
盈利預測與投資建議。公司充分發揮民營機制靈活性，與合資品牌差距正在不斷減小。預計公司19-21年歸母淨利潤分別為94.7/128.9/149.8億元，對應PE10.8/7.9/6.8倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：行業銷量受疫情影響或不及預期
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