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大和:降國際油價預測 料全球能源需求將持續低迷
格隆匯 03-09 16:46

大和發表研究報告表示,OPEC與俄羅斯減產談判破裂,在全球爆發新冠肺炎之際,料油價長期維持低迷,主要石油公司或受直接打擊,雖然中國仍致力於勘探開發活動,但相信油田服務及設備商亦會受影響,而天然氣分銷商或會看到液化天然氣(LPG)及取暖油的替代效應,該行表示認為中海油(0883.HK)股價在三家石油股中,與油價的關連最密切,預計中海油的槓槓影響最大。在油田服務商中,宏華集團(0196.HK)或最受衝擊,故將宏華目標價由0.8港元大削近48%,至0.42港元,評級由“買入”降至“持有”。(宏華今日收報0.325港元,最新總市值17.4億港元)

該行稱,預期全球能源需求將持續低迷,故將今年布蘭特期油價預測由每桶58美元降至45美元,而明年則由64美元降至50美元,並下調該行所覆蓋的主要石油公司及油田服務商每股盈利預測。

該行還稱,宏華集團相對於同業,其海外銷售比例高達74%,相對同業為43%-63%,料受打擊最大,預計其訂單將受嚴重影響,該行將宏華2020/2021年度每股盈利預測分別下調20%及29%,以反映海外需求低於預期,並將今明年收入分別下調7.6%及18.3%。 另外,該行對新奧燃氣(2688.HK)看法正面,因其對沖的業務模式,同時預計崑崙能源(0135.HK)於今年第四季的股價不明朗因素將消除,因陝京管道或被納入國家管道公司。

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