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高盛:下調港銀NIM預測 維持恆生銀行(0011.HK)“買入”評級
格隆匯 03-06 14:51

高盛發佈報告稱,美國聯儲局週二晚上突然宣佈減息半釐,聯邦基金目標利率降至1至1.25釐。該行稱,自上次更新預估(2月7日)以來,聯邦基金期貨價格已下跌約80個基點,因此更新了香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)預測。鑑於淨息差(NIM)對HIBOR有高度敏感性,尤其是恆生銀行(0011.HK)及中銀香港(2388.HK),該行對覆蓋的香港銀行NIM估計下降12-13個基點,而預測中銀香港或恆生跌20個基點。

該行將恆生目標價由202港元下調9.9%至182港元,維持“買入”評級;將中銀香港的目標價由35.7港元下調5.88%至33.6港元;將東亞銀行(0023.HK)目標價下調4.3%至17.8港元;維持“中性”評級。由於NIM下調,該行對港銀的2020每股盈利預測平均下調8%、2021下調7%及2022年下調6%。

該行表示,較低的美元利率可能會推動貸款增長,尤其是隨着內地企業被鼓勵從明年開始從內地與香港息差缺口中套利,故提高了貸款增長預期。但市場持續疲軟,非利息收入略有下降,而GDP持續下調,信貸成本也有所上升,抵消貸款增長預期。該行又表示,由於尚未對美聯儲下調前景做出調整,宏觀復甦以及股息將支撐銀行股價,對香港銀行的評級保持不變。

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