映客(3700.HK)：曙光初現，構築社交娛樂生態圈
機構：招商證券
公司於今日發佈盈利警告，預期2019年全年税後淨利潤不多於5500萬元人民幣，主要由於行業競爭加劇、集團收入減少，同時公司加大技術及創新產品的研發投入，研發費用大幅增加。2019下半年收入同比及環比增長分別超過10%及20%，創新產品初見成效，帶動用户及收入增長，主營業務及現金流保持穩健。公司將繼續圍繞【互動娛樂+社交】戰略佈局方向持續發力，伴隨創新產品矩陣的逐漸成熟，持續帶動新的發展空間。
直播業務適應流量生態，現金流表現強勁。中國純直播平台在2019年收入突破600億，網絡直播用户達4.33億人，伴隨直播內容、形式的多樣化市場規模持續增長。公司2019年上半年直播收入達14億元，佔比總收入94.3%，主播成本9億，在總成本中佔比降至86.2%。公司在高度融合“視頻+音頻”產品形態的基礎上，構建了“主播+粉絲+大R”的豐富用户生態圈，將業務觸角拓展至電商等細分領域，進一步促進商業模式多元化演進。直播業務適應當下流量生態環境，公司強勁的推廣能力和用户規模的持續擴張是產品競爭力的護城河。強勁的現金流和持續的投入印證了公司互動娛樂商業模式的強大變現能力。
創新產品矩陣日益龐大，重點佈局Z世代在線社交。公司於2019年下半年以8500萬美元收購Z世代興趣社交APP積目，後者定位於年輕人興趣社交方向，95-00後用户佔比80%。截止目前，積目日活已接近100萬人，根據MobTech出品的《2019年陌生人社交行業洞察》報告顯示，積目的日留存率達到71.2%。積目自19年12月開始已試水商業化，目前已上線觸發式付費功能、VIP升級權限等模塊，基於產品特徵探索全新玩法。高學歷潮文化社區有利於映客幫助積目快速打造商業閉環，伴隨Z世代步入社會、付費能力持續提升，積目在陌生人社交領域的商業化空間廣闊。
“雲相親”成為交友新陣地，精準服務Z世代交友需求。受疫情及春節假期帶動，映客旗下線上戀愛交友App對緣春節期間DAU暴漲300%，共促成二百餘萬場線上視頻相親，累計在線相親時長近百萬小時。下沉市場2億以上小鎮青年交友需求強烈，“雲相親”模式集匹配精準高效、打破時空侷限，視頻直觀交流等優點，告別傳統“一對一”或“一對多”的相親模式，創新性地選擇“嘉賓+紅娘”的形式，升級用户體驗，加強用户黏性。鑑於平台用户覆蓋收入穩定、有婚戀剛需的中青年人羣，且進一步拓展至Z世代用户的趨勢明顯，長期看好該項業務的盈利前景。
風險提示：競爭格局加劇；創新產品規模較小；公司盈利能力不達預期。
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