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《大行報告》中金:內地汽車穩定行業訊號頻現 政策出台預期升溫
阿思達克 02-25 14:36
中金發表的研究報告指,上周商務部、廣東省和中汽協等單位釋放了多重穩定行業信號,其中商務部表示,將會同相關部門研究出台進一步穩定汽車消費的政策措施,減輕疫情對汽車消費的影響。廣東省政府文件中提出,推動有條件的地市出台老舊汽車報廢更新補貼政策,鼓勵廣州、深圳進一步放寬汽車搖號和競拍指標。另一方面,中汽協也從廠商庫存和研發進度角度,建議延後實施國六排放標準,故中金認為未來從供需兩端出台多項穩定汽車行業的政策可期。 在需求方面,乘聯會數據顯示受疫情影響,2月前兩周乘用車日均零售銷量按年下滑92%,該行料2月後兩周的銷售將逐步復甦,全月銷量在低基數的基礎下降50%以上,3月跌幅將收窄,而首季度跌幅在30%左右,對全年影響在100萬輛或5個百分點。中金料消費刺激政策具備較大對沖潛力,根據該行對限購放鬆所進行的測算,若增加50%搖號額度和100%競價額度,將帶動增量約50萬輛;若執行以舊換新補貼等成本直接扣減政策,預計可帶動更強的增量需求。 在供給側方面,由於復工比例較高產能將持續爬坡,而延後國六實施則可緩解廠商壓力。據Marklines調研情況,截至目前絕大部分車企已經復產,但受制於零部件供應和人員排班,產能利用率仍低,中金預計到2月底產能能夠爬坡到比較理想的狀態。而定於7月1日全國執行的國六排放標準和更高顆粒物數量限值同樣對廠商供給形成壓力。據機動車環保網數據,2020年1月仍有13%的新增輕型車型和超5%的產量未執行國六排放標準,而疫情帶來的銷售和復工擾動,對廠商去國五庫存和執行新顆粒物標準的節奏帶來影響,如延後國六實施則可緩解廠商這方面的壓力,消除對供給端產品結構和價格的不利影響。 該行認為穩定行業的組合政策具有較大潛力,能夠對今年車市銷量形成強托底,並提振市場情緒。整車板塊,中金仍然建議結合持有期限擇優布局個股。在經銷商板塊方面,建議關注新車銷售回暖及行業出清為龍頭經銷商帶來的投資機會,推薦中升控股(00881.HK)、永達汽車(03669.HK)、廣匯汽車(600297.SH),前兩者目標價分別為37.7元及10.9元;重卡板塊,繼續看好工程重卡領域具備傳統優勢的濰柴動力(02338.HK)、中國重汽(03808.HK),兩者目標價為15.7元及18元;零部件板塊,該行預計短期內Tesla相關產業鏈熱度將持續維持高位,同時建議關注前期滯漲標的,如繼峰股份(603997.SH)、精鍛科技(300258.SZ)等。
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