新力控股集團(2103.HK)：崛起中的地產新秀，首次覆蓋給予「買入」評級，目標價4.83 港元
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
目標價：4.83 港元
來自江西的後起之秀。新力控股是國內一家大型綜合物業開發商，專注於住 宅及商業物業的開發。公司總部位於上海，於 2010年在江西南昌開始第一個 項目。經過近 10 年的營運，新力已在江西省住宅物業開發企業中確立了領先 地位，並將業務拓展至長江三角洲地區、粵港澳大灣區及華中華西核心城市 及其他高增長潛力地區。
發力南昌和惠州市場。截至 2019 年 7 月 31 日，新力權益土儲約 1,500 萬平 方米，並且在江西市場處於領先地位。根據 C&W 數據，公司 2018 年住宅物 業的合約銷售額在當地領跑同業，若以住宅物業銷售面積計算，公司在南昌 和贛州的地產開發商中排名第一。此外，公司在惠州擁有較多項目儲備。截 至 2019 年 7 月 31 日，公司在江西和大灣區的土儲分別為 740萬和 350萬平 方米，佔公司總土儲 50%和 23%。具體而言，南昌和惠州是新力兩個最重要 市場，佔公司總土儲 40%和 20%。
預計 2018 年至 2021 年間的淨利潤複合年增長率達 106%。2016-18 年股東 應占淨利潤分別為 6,200萬、9,500萬和 4.14億元人民幣，淨利潤率 2.8%、 1.8%和 4.9%。我們預測公司未來三年將維持良好的項目交付節奏，預計 2019-21 年股東應占淨利潤分別為 14.68 億、27.39 億和 36.18 億元人民幣， 三年的複合年增長率達到 106.0%。
首次覆蓋，給予「買入」評級。我們利用資產淨值折讓推算公司估值，估計 至 20財年末新力每股資產淨值為 8.69元人民幣。基於 50%折讓以及 0.90元 人民幣= 1.00 港元的假設，我們把目標價定於 4.83 港元，首次覆蓋給予買入 評級。
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