植耀輝: 港股今復市遇考驗 入市撈底宜控制注碼
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝祝各位讀者今年心想事成、身體健康,股運亨通。今年新年假期過得相當一般,肺炎疫情令新年氣氛跌至冰點,今日開市又可能會帶來另一衝擊:過去兩日外圍股市已大幅下挫,今日恆指亦有很大機會開「黑盤」之餘,從黑期跌幅估算或會跌至27,000點以下水平。
當然,每次大跌可能也是入市「撈底」良機,今日亦有頗大機會跌至早前訂下之「入市價」,不過今次情況似乎有所分別,皆因疫情仍持續擴散,現階段亦難以評估何時得到緩解,而且一旦本地出現社區爆發,投資氣氛將進一步惡化。內地疫情之嚴重程度亦難以想像,對各行各業之打擊即使非致命性,影響亦非同小可,從過去數天美國中概股之表現便已一清二楚;疫情亦無可避免地令中國今年GDP能否「保六」帶來重大挑戰。總之,在疫情仍未見轉機之際,即使打算入第一注貨,但注碼亦不宜太多,並要有心理準備隨時再加注。
疫情對各行各業之衝擊相信在春節假期後將陸續浮現,但在新年假期前,個別板塊股價已見沽壓,汽車股便是其中之一。當中,吉利(00175.HK)及東風(00489.HK)股價便分別出現「9連陰」及「10連陰」。根據中國汽車工業協會資料顯示,2019年中國汽車銷量為2,576.9萬輛,同比下跌8.2%,今年增長率則為下跌2%至約2,531萬輛。
筆者過去一直看淡車股,亦預期在行業競爭加劇下,儘管政策會有所扶持,但對股價刺激作用不會太大。相比之下,汽車經銷商仍有一定作為。事實上,若以股價表現計,個別如永達(03669.HK)及中升控股(00881.HK)亦大幅跑贏一眾車股。最大原因可能在於代理品牌方面。
雖然內地汽車近年出現負增長,但豪華車特別是德國系表現卻相當不俗,例如寶馬增加13%,賓士亦升4%。而為了加強銷售,根據早前中金研究報告提到,寶馬將對寶馬系國產及進口車輛,除X5和X7外進行補貼。按照經銷商排名,每輛將享有有5,088-6,888元補貼。永達作為寶馬內地最大代理品牌,受惠程度預期亦最大。另外,保時捷等豪華車早前預期內地今年銷售亦相當可觀,亦成為經銷商股份另一個受追捧之原因。最後,包括保養及維修等之售後服務佔比提升亦有助提升毛利率表現。
無疑面對現時疫情,今日復市亦難免受壓,不過相比汽車製造商,經銷商未來發展仍較有憧憬,未來仍值得大家關注。
筆者並未持有相關股份~
阿思達克財經新聞
網址: www.aastocks.com
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.