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植耀輝: 市況反覆未定 藥股禾雀亂飛勿高追
阿思達克 02-05 11:41
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,周日(2月2日)。筆者一如以往在黃昏時間檢視公司通告(港交所(00388.HK)披露易下午6時更新)。近來已不止一次看到內地企業暫時休業消息,但今日(5日)亦再次看到餐飲股面對冠狀病毒之無奈,所指的是海底撈(06862.HK)最新有關業務發展之通告。該通告的內容指「考慮到近期疫情發展情況,為持續配合疫情防控工作……中國大陸地區(港澳台地區除外)門店停業的時間將會延長」,說穿了就是「無限期休業」。對餐飲業而言,少一日經營,收入亦會減少,所以不難想像對今年業績會帶來多大衝擊;不過,過去兩日見其股價並未受影響,累升更達5.5%!股價升跌有時實在難以理性分析,只是以其估值加上當前狀況,不追貨就是了。 濠賭股的情況亦好不了多少。筆者較早前在本欄已質疑大行對濠賭股的看法過於樂觀,而最新公布之1月份賭收數據進一步印證筆者觀點。不少大行現時已將2月份賭收數據大幅下調,個別估算將按年倒退達50%!另外執筆之時澳門特首賀一誠宣布,暫停賭場營運半個月,相信大行很快亦會「出手」下調目標價矣!所以要買銀娛(00027.HK)之讀者,不妨再等一會吧! 另外,雖然過去兩日港股見有反彈,但疫情所帶來之衝擊仍難料,所以投資者現階段只宜候低吸納,不建議高追。話雖如此,有一個板塊近期表現卻一枝獨秀,就是醫藥板塊。其實亦不難理解,皆因每次出現大規模疫情,大家最關心的是疫情能否受控,以及是否有可行治療之法。根據過去經驗,一旦藥企能成功研發新藥,對股價確有點石成金之效;問題在於究竟現時是否有藥物可以成功醫治療新型冠狀病毒?事實上,一個藥物的應用,首先要保證它的安全性及有效性,所以一定需要經過多輪臨床測試,而現時暫未見有一隻藥物能成功「對付」(包括預防及治療)此病毒。當然不同國家也有其針對病毒之醫療方法,不過距離真正成功,相信仍有一大段路要走。 然而,在憧憬「有藥醫」的情況下,個別疑以疫情相關股如中國醫療(08225.HK)、歌禮製藥(01672.HK)、福森藥業(01652.HK)及李氏大藥廠(00950.HK)被大幅炒高,但此類股份股價之波動十分驚人,何況所涉及藥種是否有效仍值得商榷。或者筆者用好友Jasper的一句話作總結。「如果真的有得『醫』,那A股復市首日就不會跌7%,而是升7%」。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~ 阿思達克財經新聞 網址: www.aastocks.com
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