美團點評-W(3690.HK)：生活必需品訂單量大增4倍，升級推出“無接觸安心送“，維持“買入”評級
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
投資要點
事件：“無接觸配送”的訂單在整體訂單佔比超過80%，商超等生活必需品的訂單量大增4倍。2月12日，美團外賣發佈《無接觸配送報告》，在1月26日至2月8日期間，“無接觸配送”的訂單佔比超過80%，其中每單都使用該服務的用户佔比達66%。此外生活必需品的訂單量漲幅明顯。其中米麪糧油、生鮮果蔬、休閒食品等銷售額同比增長了400%。
多人餐食訂單以及無接觸異地單的高速增長印證我們此前觀點。在“無接觸配送”訂單中，多人份餐食佔比增長明顯。2人份及以上餐食比例較平日增長31.7%，5人份及以上佔比增長了73.2%。此外無接觸異地單佔比達到9.1%(平日約5%)。我們認為本次特殊期間外賣的場景與用户或有所增加，例如父母和子女一起體驗外賣配送，以大家庭為單位的採購形式也在擴充，新用户的外賣使用習慣將有效建立。
在“無接觸配送”基礎上升級再推出“無接觸安心送”。美團外賣升級了安全保障措施，在“無接觸配送”基礎上升級推出“無接觸安心送”，實行包含無接觸取送、“安心卡”，增加了商家和騎手的體温追蹤、配送箱消毒等6大保障措施，全程進行多方位的保護。
外賣訂單量短期放緩，我們預計1）節後返工需求將逐漸回暖；2）非餐飲外賣上升明顯；3）重型品牌外賣將加強合作。2020年春節假期延長遞延了供需與運力。我們判斷，外賣訂單量短期放緩，但必需品、醫療等非餐飲外賣明顯上升，用户羣體與覆蓋品類同步擴張。我們認為返工後用户需求逐步恢復，而線下餐飲部分轉至線上，“無接觸配送”的滲透提升了送餐效率與體驗；此外重型餐飲也會提高與平台的合作意願。
投資建議：我們看好公司在本地生活服務的龍頭地位，外賣盈利能力將隨着規模效應持續提升，數據變現與服務生態也具有巨大空間。我們預計公司20/21年的營收為1283/1650億元，經調整經營利潤為55/131億元。根據SOTP估值保持目標價125.2港元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：1）政策風險；2）特殊時期延長加劇；3）市場競爭加劇；4）餐飲行業景氣度下行；5）新業務減虧不及預期
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