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吉利汽車(0175.HK)擬與沃爾沃汽車業務合併點評:資源整合,全球化進程加速,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 02-13 09:40

​機構:西部證券

評級:買入

目標價:18.2港元

吉利汽車擬與沃爾沃汽車業務合併。公司公告稱吉利與沃爾沃管理層正探討兩公司的業務合併,實現成本結構和新技術開發的協同作用,而吉利、沃爾沃、領克和極星各品牌將保持獨立性。合併後的業務計劃在香港及斯德哥爾摩上市,關於交易細節和時間表尚無更多指引。2019年吉利和沃爾沃分別銷售汽車136萬台、70萬台,合併後銷售規模將超過200萬台。

相比於此前獨立IPO的計劃,我們認為沃爾沃加入到吉利上市公司主體更有利於雙方協同效應的放大。主要體現在以下方面:1)雙方合併後一方面可以避免吉利對沃爾沃股權的稀釋,另一方面融資規模和渠道將具備更大的靈活性;2)吉利和沃爾沃的深度合作雖然早已展開,但更多停留於技術合作層面,業務方面沒有實現完全融合,合併後雙方可以發揮各自優勢,提升研發效率,比如在新能源領域沃爾沃專注研發純電和插混,吉利深耕小排量和普混,分工更加明確;3)隨着沃爾沃和吉利共享平台CMA、PMA、SPA平台相繼投產上量,雙方在產能調配、零部件採購方面的優勢將進一步放大。

沃爾沃經營穩健,有望獲得估值溢價。吉利收購沃爾沃以來,沃爾沃產銷和利潤規模穩步增長,目前收入規模高於吉利,盈利能力偏低但高於歐洲同業。目前歐洲OEM的平均估值在2019年7倍市盈率,吉利汽車約為12倍,我們預計沃爾沃汽車在港股市場有望獲得估值溢價。

疫情影響短期銷量,調整2020年淨利潤預估至127億元,維持“買入”評級。我們下調2020年淨利潤預估至127億元,主要反應疫情對2020年銷售的擾動。基於盈利調整,我們DCF模型得出的目標價為18.2港元,隱含2020年12倍市盈率,維持“買入”評級.

風險提示:疫情發展進度高於預期、業務整合進度不及預期、新產品銷售遇冷、車市價格戰加劇。

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