國泰君安:料今年專項債總額按年增四成 基建行業跑贏大市
國家財政部提前下達2020年新增地方政府債務限額8480億元(人民幣,下同),加上此前提前下達的專項債務1萬億元,將共提前下達2020新增地方政府債務限額18480億元。
國泰君安最新報告指,據統計,截至1月底,已發行專項債的額度達到7148億元,較2019年同期發行額大增71%。此外,若不包括剛公佈提前發行的額度2900億元,截至1月專項債發行額度已佔提前下達發行額度1萬億元的71.5%,反映下發力度非常強。財政部披露2019年共發行專項債總額21487億元,市場預計今年總額或可達3萬億元,較2019年大增40%。
報告認為,在下發額度及速度均預期增加的情況下,地方基建項目將有更充足的資金推動,預計2020年基建投資增速將高於2019年的3.7%。考慮到上述因素,加上2020年為“十三五”收官之年,根據以往經驗投資將較往年提速,加上現時政府有增加基建投資以維持經濟穩定的需要,2020年基建投資增速或有超於預期的可能。
國泰君安指出,中國中鐵(0390.HK)、中國鐵建(1186.HK)及中國通號(3969.HK)將是鐵路建設提速最主要的受益者。此外,中交建(1800.HK)亦將受惠於公共基礎設施,如公路及醫院等項目的加大投入。重申行業“跑贏大市”評級。
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