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匯豐研究:下調三油股目標價 看好神華(1088.HK)及中海油(0883.HK)
格隆匯 02-12 14:49
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情爆發對中國工業及運輸活動帶來前所未有的破壞,其中中國石油需求料或下降每日約200萬桶,對全球石油需求增長造成壓力。 該行估計,今年全球石油需求增長為每日75萬桶,而疫情爆發前的預期增長為每日110萬桶。不過,該行維持今明兩年布蘭特油價預測在每桶60及65美元不變,主因預期油組或會因應情況減產。
該行又指,在宏觀經濟疲弱及冬季和暖的情況下,中國的天然氣需求增長或在今年放緩至6%,對比2018及2019年分別為18%及8%,其中工業天然氣需求受影響最大,而液化天然氣(LNG)目前處供過於求,估計氣量和價格走低將持續一段時間。另外由於需求低迷,該行料煉油及化工產品的產量及毛利率或會下降,至於煤炭在短期價格上升後料應會相對穩定。
基於早前將今年布蘭特油價預測由每桶61美元降至60美元,及降低下游業務盈利預測等因素,匯豐研究下調對中海油(0883.HK) 今明兩年盈利預測分別7%及3%,股份目標價由17.37港元降至16.72港元;中石油(0857.HK) 今年盈利預測則上調14%,明年下調9%,股份目標價由4.8港元降至4.64港元;中石化(0386.HK) 今年盈利預測下調20%,明年盈測則維持不變,股份目標價由6.28港元降至5.93港元,三企評級同樣維持“ 買入 ”。
該行提到,看好神華(1088.HK) 及中海油,其中喜好神華平衡的業務模式,而中海油則有行業領先的股本回報率。匯豐予神華“ 買入 ”評級,目標價19.45港元。

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