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吉利汽車 ( 0175.HK ):協同效應再放大,打造全球頂尖整車集團,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 02-12 10:42

機構:國盛證券

評級:買入

​事件。公司2月10日公告,管理層正在與沃爾沃汽車初步業務合併重組的可能性,擬保留吉利、沃爾沃、領克與極星品牌的獨特性,將合併後業務於香港及斯德哥爾摩上市。

厚增體量與品牌。根據沃爾沃汽車財報,2019年沃爾沃汽車營業收入2741億克朗(1986億元),同比+8.5%,其中中國區收入605.3億克朗(437億元);實現淨利潤96億瑞典克朗(70億元),同比下滑1.8%,全年營業利潤率5.2%;現金流量116億瑞典克朗(84億元)。全年汽車銷量70.54萬輛,其中在華(大陸+香港+台灣)銷售16.14萬輛,美國10.82萬輛。一旦合併,將在上市公司體內新增豪華品牌,厚增盈利。

更深入的協同、更大的規模優勢。公司與沃爾沃的合併目前仍在初步討論階段,具體資本運作的方式與時間安排尚未確定,如果順利進行,無疑將進一步提升公司的品牌形象、技術實力、供應鏈體系。未來隨着公司與沃爾沃,在動力總成與平台化技術方面合作的進一步深入,疊加吉利(中低端)+領克(中高端)+沃爾沃(豪華)強大的品牌佈局與規模優勢,公司將進一步夯實一線車企地位。中長期看,雙方有望共享產業鏈,吉利的供應鏈成本優勢與沃爾沃標準化供應鏈管理能力結合,有望最大效益提升供應鏈品質並降低成本,對單一零部件而言採購體量有望從百萬量級提升到兩百萬量級,規模優勢明顯。

APS智能空氣淨化系統成為新賣點,短期有望催化銷量。2月4日公司宣佈將開發全新IAPS智能空氣淨化系統,研發具備病毒防範功能的“全方位健康汽車”,有望30天內實現量產,將對0.3μm以上的粉塵過濾效率達95%以上,並具備抑制細菌或表面殺菌的能力。疫情得到控制後,首購需求有望提升,公司發佈的新型空氣淨化系統,有望增強車型品牌力和產品力,短期成為新的賣點,或直接催化3月銷量。

庫存低位,2020年靜待平台化車型持續發力。公司2019年12月批售13.6萬輛,終端零售17萬輛,經銷商庫存不斷消納,目前整體庫存深度已達歷史低位,3月起隨着行業需求的逐步回暖,公司有望迎來新一輪的補庫週期。疊加公司CMA、BMA平台的新車週期發力,預計公司2020年141萬輛的銷售目標為保守數字,龍頭地位穩固。

盈利預測與投資建議。公司充分發揮民營機制靈活性,與合資品牌差距正在不斷減小。預計公司19-21年歸母淨利潤分別為94.7/128.9/149.8億元,對應PE11.7/8.6/7.4倍,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:業務合併計劃具有一定不確定性。

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