安信國際：TCL電子(1070.HK)全年銷量創新高，盈利增幅略超預期，維持”買入“評級，目標價4.84港元
機構：安信國際
評級：買入
目標價：4.84元
報告摘要
公司近期公告，預期2019年的歸母淨利潤較2018年同期相比，將錄得不低於120%的顯著增幅。這樣的業績表現略微超出我們的預期。根據我們的財務預測，TCL電子2019年歸母淨利潤預計增長114.2%，公司預披露的業績增長速度超出我們的預測6個百分點以上。
全年電視銷量3200萬台。2019年公司累計電視機銷售量同比增長12%至3200萬台，創歷史新高。全年TCL品牌的電視銷售量同比增長17%，其中智能電視機和4K電視機銷售量分別同比增長19%及31%，佔整體銷量分別為85%和51%，產品結構得到進一步優化。
海外市場蓬勃發展。公司2019年在海外市場繼續保持領先優勢，TCL品牌電視海外銷售同比上升26%達1,346萬台。尤其是北美市場持續鞏固領先優勢，全年品牌電視機銷量同比維持雙位數增長達14%。根據NPD最新市場研究報告數據，2019年首三季度，TCL品牌電視機在美國銷售量市佔率穩居前二，市佔率同比顯著增長超過3個百分點。
海外互聯網業務首次貢獻收入，國內互聯網業務淨利潤增速預計超過120%。公司2019年和Roku簽訂收益分成協議，海外互聯網業務首次貢獻持續性收入；而雷鳥科技的國內業務收入則繼續快速增長，預計2019年將帶來超過5億港幣的收入，淨利潤增速將超過120%。
增持雷鳥科技帶來一次性股權公允價值重估收益7.9億港元。TCL電子於2019年上半年完成了對雷鳥科技的股權增持，由44.44%增持至60%，並於2019年4月完成並表。本次增持，導致TCL電子原持有雷鳥網絡科技44.44%的股權經重新計量其公允價值，因此錄得一次性重大非經營性收益7.9億港元。
投資建議：我們維持之前首次覆蓋時對公司的盈利預測，預計2019E/2020E/2021E的歸母淨利潤為20.2億、14.3億和16.6億，每股盈利EPS分別為港幣0.86元/0.60元/0.70元，每股盈利的同比增速分別為111.7%/-29.4%/16.4%。我們認為，TCL在海外市場的優勢明顯，營業額在未來3年有望維持雙位數的年化增長；同時股息率較高，具有吸引力。我們維持公司目標價4.84港元，較現價有18%的上升空間，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：海外市場需求不及預期；行業競爭加劇；貿易摩擦升級等。
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