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三一國際(0631.HK):2019年盈利大幅增長,目前業務運作正常,維持買入評級,目標價 5.6 港元
格隆匯 02-06 09:13

機構:招商銀行

評級:買入

目標價:5.6 港元

三一國際 2019 年淨利潤同比大幅增長。雖然公司未公佈利潤增幅,但我們預計 為同比增長 51%。目前,三一國際的在手訂單仍然穩固,而管理層亦已做好充分 準備確保運營順利。我們維持目標價 5.6 港元,基於 2 倍市帳率倍數維持不變, 對應 2020-21年 15-17%股本回報率。重申買入。

 盈喜符合我們預期。盈利增長的驅動因素包括(1)採煤和港口機械收入均 實現強勁增長;(2)綜合採煤機(CCMU)和正面吊等產品毛利率擴張; 以及(3)因成本控制得宜令銷售開支比率(不包括研發費用)下降。 

 在湖北省無生產基地。三一國際的生產基地分別位於瀋陽、珠海和長沙。沈 陽基地主要生產採煤機械,珠海基地用以製造大型港口機械。至於長沙基地 (主要製造小型港口機械),其生產線正逐漸轉移到珠海。 

 估計肺炎疫情對三一國際無重大影響。根據我們瞭解,三一國際的客户較少 受到疫情所影響,目前並未出現取消訂單的情況。與其他內地廠房一樣,三 一國際將於 2月 10日恢復生產,公司已做好充分準備以提高產能利用率。 

 維持正面看法。我們繼續看好三一國際的新產品開發和多元化產品線,預計 新產品純水液壓支架和非道路寬體礦用車將在今年大量交付。此外,大型港 口機械訂單穩固,為今年收益提供能見度。 

 主要風險因素:(1)肺炎疫情未受控;(2)煤炭開採業活動下降;(3) 零部本成本上升;(4)國際貿易弱於預期。

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