植耀辉: 港股今复市遇考验 入市捞底宜控制注码
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉祝各位读者今年心想事成、身体健康，股运亨通。今年新年假期过得相当一般，肺炎疫情令新年气氛跌至冰点，今日开市又可能会带来另一冲击：过去两日外围股市已大幅下挫，今日恒指亦有很大机会开「黑盘」之余，从黑期跌幅估算或会跌至27,000点以下水平。
当然，每次大跌可能也是入市「捞底」良机，今日亦有颇大机会跌至早前订下之「入市价」，不过今次情况似乎有所分别，皆因疫情仍持续扩散，现阶段亦难以评估何时得到缓解，而且一旦本地出现社区爆发，投资气氛将进一步恶化。内地疫情之严重程度亦难以想像，对各行各业之打击即使非致命性，影响亦非同小可，从过去数天美国中概股之表现便已一清二楚；疫情亦无可避免地令中国今年GDP能否「保六」带来重大挑战。总之，在疫情仍未见转机之际，即使打算入第一注货，但注码亦不宜太多，并要有心理准备随时再加注。
疫情对各行各业之冲击相信在春节假期後将陆续浮现，但在新年假期前，个别板块股价已见沽压，汽车股便是其中之一。当中，吉利(00175.HK)及东风(00489.HK)股价便分别出现「9连阴」及「10连阴」。根据中国汽车工业协会资料显示，2019年中国汽车销量为2,576.9万辆，同比下跌8.2%，今年增长率则为下跌2%至约2,531万辆。
笔者过去一直看淡车股，亦预期在行业竞争加剧下，尽管政策会有所扶持，但对股价刺激作用不会太大。相比之下，汽车经销商仍有一定作为。事实上，若以股价表现计，个别如永达(03669.HK)及中升控股(00881.HK)亦大幅跑赢一众车股。最大原因可能在於代理品牌方面。
虽然内地汽车近年出现负增长，但豪华车特别是德国系表现却相当不俗，例如宝马增加13%，宾士亦升4%。而为了加强销售，根据早前中金研究报告提到，宝马将对宝马系国产及进口车辆，除X5和X7外进行补贴。按照经销商排名，每辆将享有有5,088-6,888元补贴。永达作为宝马内地最大代理品牌，受惠程度预期亦最大。另外，保时捷等豪华车早前预期内地今年销售亦相当可观，亦成为经销商股份另一个受追捧之原因。最後，包括保养及维修等之售後服务占比提升亦有助提升毛利率表现。
无疑面对现时疫情，今日复市亦难免受压，不过相比汽车制造商，经销商未来发展仍较有憧憬，未来仍值得大家关注。
笔者并未持有相关股份~
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