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《大行報告》瑞銀料友邦(01299.HK)盈利受武漢肺炎事件影響有限 屬可控水平
阿思達克 01-22 12:24

瑞銀發表報告表示,投資者關注內地近期爆發新型冠狀病毒(武漢肺炎)感染擴展,對保險股潛在影響,該行評估後相信事件對保險股盈利影響並非特別明顯(料影響盈利1%之內),若今次武漢肺炎發展至如2003年沙士(SARS)事件,事件會推遲客戶來港購買離岸保單,相信會影響友邦(01299.HK)旗下友邦香港表現。

該行指,由於友邦主要銷售產品為「危疾」,此並不覆蓋包括冠狀病毒類型肺炎,除非此疾病導致客戶死亡,保險公司則需要因客戶死亡支付保險理賠,而目前武漢肺炎死亡率約1.5%,對比沙士為9.6%。

參考上次沙士事件在亞洲區受感染人數共8,138人,死亡人數875人,該行假設武漢肺炎發展至「最壞情境」(情況如沙士般),假設公司需向每名涉事投保人支付2.5萬美元醫療支出及6萬美元死亡理賠,分別涉支付2.03億美元及5,300萬美元,即共2.56億美元。假設友邦在上述最壞情境所涉保單的市佔率為5%,料將拖低其今年盈利0.19%;假設上述最壞情境所涉保單的市佔率為10%,料將拖低友邦今年盈利0.37%;假設上述最壞情境所涉保單的市佔率為15%,料將拖低其今年盈利0.56%。

瑞銀表示,若武漢肺炎發展至「最壞情境」,相信公司所受財務影響屬可控,料友邦內含價值營運回報率(RoEV)仍可達14%水平以上,該行仍對友邦在內地業務前景持建設性看法,但相信友邦短期估值難免受武漢肺炎事件所影響,難以全面反映集團在內地增長潛力。該行維持友邦「買入」投資評級及目標價90港元。

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