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《大行报告》瑞银料友邦(01299.HK)盈利受武汉肺炎事件影响有限 属可控水平
阿思达克 01-22 12:24

瑞银发表报告表示,投资者关注内地近期爆发新型冠状病毒(武汉肺炎)感染扩展,对保险股潜在影响,该行评估後相信事件对保险股盈利影响并非特别明显(料影响盈利1%之内),若今次武汉肺炎发展至如2003年沙士(SARS)事件,事件会推迟客户来港购买离岸保单,相信会影响友邦(01299.HK)旗下友邦香港表现。

该行指,由於友邦主要销售产品为「危疾」,此并不覆盖包括冠状病毒类型肺炎,除非此疾病导致客户死亡,保险公司则需要因客户死亡支付保险理赔,而目前武汉肺炎死亡率约1.5%,对比沙士为9.6%。

参考上次沙士事件在亚洲区受感染人数共8,138人,死亡人数875人,该行假设武汉肺炎发展至「最坏情境」(情况如沙士般),假设公司需向每名涉事投保人支付2.5万美元医疗支出及6万美元死亡理赔,分别涉支付2.03亿美元及5,300万美元,即共2.56亿美元。假设友邦在上述最坏情境所涉保单的市占率为5%,料将拖低其今年盈利0.19%;假设上述最坏情境所涉保单的市占率为10%,料将拖低友邦今年盈利0.37%;假设上述最坏情境所涉保单的市占率为15%,料将拖低其今年盈利0.56%。

瑞银表示,若武汉肺炎发展至「最坏情境」,相信公司所受财务影响属可控,料友邦内含价值营运回报率(RoEV)仍可达14%水平以上,该行仍对友邦在内地业务前景持建设性看法,但相信友邦短期估值难免受武汉肺炎事件所影响,难以全面反映集团在内地增长潜力。该行维持友邦「买入」投资评级及目标价90港元。

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