摩通:維持澳門1月賭收按年跌2%預測 對濠賭股維持正面看法
摩根大通發表研究報告,據該行調查,1月首十九日賭收錄約150億(澳門元,下同),相當於日均賭收錄約7.9億元,意味上週日均賭收放慢至約6.7億元,首兩週日均賭收則錄約8.5億元以上,摩通認為屬長假前賭收常見放緩;主要中介人贏率趨正常化至約3.3%,低於對上數週的3.5%以上,即反映按周錄明顯下跌,但符預期。
該行指,相信各分部表現於近月都有穩健復甦,中場賭收按年錄高單位數增長,貴賓廳跌幅則收窄至介乎約13%至17%。摩通認為,這反映比較基數較低,以及去年12月以至去年末季有被壓抑的需求釋放。
基於春節長假前賭收料進一步放緩,摩通維持澳門1月賭收按年跌2%預測,2月賭收則料錄4%至6%的跌幅,合計首兩月按年跌幅料介乎3%至4%,並認為有關估算有上調空間,假設內地武漢肺炎不會升級至極端情況。
摩通維持對濠賭股正面看法,即使近期股價反彈,認為估值仍不高,相當於今年預測企業價值對EBITDA倍數約12倍,低於14倍的歷史均值,在潛在週期復甦及市場對濠賭業潛在重估下,顯得吸引。
該行首選澳博控股(0880.HK)
和美高梅中國(2282.HK)
;其次為銀河娛樂(0027.HK)
和新濠;末位為金沙中國(1928.HK)
和永利澳門(1128.HK)
。
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