美的置業(3990.HK)：傳承製造業基因，充裕土儲帶來可觀增長空間，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
跨越千億規模，在手土儲充裕。2019年全年，公司實現合同銷售金額1012.3億元，同比增長28.1%；對應的已售合同面積1002.3萬平米，同比增長26.8%。2015-2019年公司合同銷售金額CAGR達74%，銷售規模實現跨越式增長。與此同時，公司擁有充裕的土儲作為未來銷售的安全墊。截止至19年年中，公司擁有5251萬方土儲，對應貨值約5500億元，單方拿地成本為2677元/平米，為2019年銷售均價的26.5%。此外，公司自19年上半年起聚焦城市升級，上半年新增土地儲備約1254億貨值，其中74%位於一線、二線城市，提高城市能級，新進入了上海、天津、杭州、武漢等城市。
傳承美的製造業基因，低成本融資凸顯優勢。公司創立於2004年，沿襲美的集團的製造業、科技基因，堅持“房地產+產業”定位，形成了一主兩翼的戰略佈局。此外，得益於美的集團的背書，公司主體AAA評級，截止至2019年年中，公司的加權融資成本僅為5.95%，與各大民營房企相比具備明顯優勢；存量債務總規模為542億元，以銀行貸款為主，為67%；一年以內到期的債務佔比21%，較18年底下降13pct，債務結構合理；公司的淨負債率為95.6%，處於合理區位。
業績進入釋放期，與股東分享公司收益。2019H1公司實現營業收入142億元，歸母淨利潤17.69億元，分別同比增長34.2%、20.1%，歸母淨利率為12.5%。過去幾年快速增長的銷售金額保障了公司未來業績增速，截止至19H1，公司未結轉貨值達745億。同時，我們預計公司在未來幾年將保持40%的分紅比例，以2020年1月17日收盤價測算，其2019年分紅對應的股息率達到7%，收益可觀。
首次覆蓋，預計公司2019、20、21年EPS為3.78、5.13、6.60元，對應的PE為5.7、4.2、3.3倍。考慮到公司充沛的土地儲備、具備優勢的融資成本以及可觀的股息收益率，給予公司買入評級。
風險提示：重點佈局城市銷售不及預期；結轉速度低於預期
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