【中泰食品飲料】恆順醋業：人事變革迎拐點，百年恆順再飄香
作者：範勁鬆、熊欣慰
來源： 食品飲料俱樂部
投資要點
事件：1月10日公司召開股東大會和董事會，選舉杭祝鴻為公司董事長。
新董事長上任，公司內部改革有望迎來拐點。杭董事長之前任鎮江市政府祕書長、黨組成員、市政府辦黨組書記，此次調任上市公司擔任董事長，體現了大股東對公司加速發展的期望。我們認為近年競爭對手收購鎮江中小香醋企業，潛在競爭壓力加大，也強化了大股東加快釋放恆順醋業經營活力的決心。新董事長上任後，重點工作將聚焦於內部改革、機制激活上，從五大中心進行戰略引領，提升運營效率。
改革瞄準痛點，營銷、渠道、機制齊發力。從歷史看，恆順產品力強、品牌知名度高，但營銷和機制一直是短板，新董事長上任針對短板發力，有望激發企業活力、加速發展。（1）營銷上推進戰區制進行優化，劃定北部、南部、東部、本部戰區，匹配跟進措施，實行長官負責。戰區制的職責劃分和業績考核更明確，各戰區從產品銷售、品牌培育、員工市場化激勵等方面均有加強。2019年樣板市場增長良好，公司調研反饋杭州樣板市場打造較成功，2019年浙江預計收入增長超過30%。未來華中地區會以武漢為樣板市場進行打造，河南、山東等省穩步推進。此外，公司將進一步重視電商等現代渠道，2019Q1-3線上銷售7214萬，同比增長83%。（2）考核體系上充分調動員工的積極性、創造性和主動性，貫徹業績導向，薪酬獎勵將更加市場化。（3）產品端持續聚焦調味品主業，重點打造食醋、料酒、醬三大品類。其中食醋不斷鞏固龍頭地位，料酒延續高速增長趨勢，醬類有望從量變向質變發展。
積極增加市場投放，收入有望加速增長。公司處於經營活力釋放的拐點，對收入重視程度更高，短期將加大市場投入，有望帶動規模加速增長。銷售費用率預計提升，但受益產品結構升級+規模效益增強+效率提升，淨利率預計平穩。恆順醋業是食醋龍頭，行業地位穩固，建議積極關注公司內部改善帶來經營活力加速釋放和效率快速提升。
盈利預測：公司人事變動，內部經營活力有望釋放，收入將加速增長，銷售費用投放力度加大。我們調整盈利預測，預計公司2019-2021年收入分別為18.62、21.23、24.50億元，歸母淨利潤分別為3.49、3.86、4.44億元（調整前歸母淨利潤分別為3.28、3.76、4.34億元），扣非後歸母淨利潤分別為2.57、2.94、3.52億元，EPS分別為0.45、0.49、0.57元，對應PE為37倍、33倍、29倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：食品安全風險；渠道開拓不達預期
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
