维达国际(3331.HK)公司动态点评：业绩释放如期而至，产品迭代激发活力，维持“强烈推荐”评级
机构：长城证券
评级：强烈推荐
2019 权益持有人经营溢利同比增长超过 70%，业绩符合预期。2019 年经 营溢利同比增长超过 50%，预计超过 15.29 亿港元，持有人经营溢利同比 增长超过 70%，预计超过 11.04 亿港元。保守预计 Q4 经营溢利可达 5.32 亿港元，同比增长 112%（Q1/Q2/Q3 经营溢利分别为 3.4/2.9/3.7 亿港元， 同比增长 2.72%/-7.37%/192.06%），如我们前期所提示，H2 为维达业绩释 放的高峰期。
木浆下跌及产品迭代驱动利润率高增。成本端：2019 年全年木浆价格处 于逐季下降的态势，平均成本相较 2018 年下降 28%。收入端：依赖于较 强的品牌力，公司价格相较中小品牌较为稳定。此外春节前置效应或拉 动 Q4 收入端放量。产品端：高端纸巾如 Tempo、立体美、厨房纸巾前三 季度的增长超过 60%，占比超过 20%。成本端中枢的下移，收入端价格 的稳定，以及产品端新品的顺利推广共同驱动利润率提升。
电商渠道持续发力，线上品牌效应反哺线下渠道拓展。公司为线上渠道 王者，高瞻远瞩于业内较早将资源倾斜至电商渠道，并将电商渠道独立。 先发优势助力公司与核心平台合作较为紧密，同时锻造出高效的供应链 体系给予支持。公司的线上销售体量为业内最大，前三季度电商渠道同 比增长超 35%，双十一持续摘得生活用纸品类销售桂冠，线上优势持续 保持。通过线上树立的绝对优势已经开始反哺到线下。根据我们草根调 研，消费者的需求传导至线下经销商生活用纸品牌的采购，维达品牌采 购的占比不断提升，传统 GT 渠道得到一定支持。
投资建议：立足于优质的产品及强大的电商、商销渠道，公司的品牌力 有望不断提升。长期来看，个护的培育有望在未来带来新增盈利点，维 达有望成长为亚洲个护用品龙头企业。预计 2019-2022 年 EPS 为 0.98、 1.19、1.32 港元，对应 PE 为 16、13、12x，维持“强烈推荐”评级。
风险提示：原材料价格上涨风险；产能释放不及预期；行业产能扩张大 于需求，竞争加剧；扩品类推广不及预期；营销渠道建设不及预期。
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