長城汽車(2333.HK)12月銷量數據點評：12月主動去庫存，2020蓄勢突破，維持“增持”評級
機構：西部證券
評級：增持
● 核心結論
事件：公司發佈2019年12月產銷快報，全月銷售汽車106,008輛，同比下降 20.8%；年度累計銷售汽車1,060,298輛，同比增長0.7%。
12月主動去庫存，全年增速大幅跑贏行業。12月狹義乘用車批發銷量216.2 萬輛，同比下降1.0%，長城汽車同比增速跑輸行業19.8pct；1-12月狹義乘 用車批發銷量2,110.3萬輛，同比下降9.3%，累計數據看，長城同比增速仍 然大幅跑贏行業9.9pct。公司2019年和2018年經銷商庫存管理節奏有所差 異，2018年主要的年底旺季加庫存發生在11-12月份，2019年12月份已進 入去庫存階段。庫存管理節奏差異是12月銷量同比增速承壓的原因。
M6環比大幅增長，炮銷量達到7,000輛。具體車型來看，12月哈弗H6環比 微增；M6環比大幅增長20.2%，月銷超過2018年底的歷史高點；VV6和F7 環比下滑；新能源汽車環比增速較高，但月度銷量尚未回升至上半年水平。 新上市皮卡車型炮銷售7,020輛，月銷超過7,000輛。
2020年將是公司蓄勢突破之年。2020年上半年，公司將推出哈弗H、F， Wey系列的改款車型和歐拉的全新純電車型，下半年公司將推出全新平台的 2款全新SUV，此外，公司還將推出炮越野版，豐富皮卡車型譜系。公司作 為SUV龍頭企業，將持續受益於當前行業產能出清過程中的集中度提升。此 外，公司推出全新平台車型有利於降本增效，加大Wey的品牌塑造助力公司 產品系列持續向上突破、皮卡新車打開全新市場空間，2020年將是公司蓄勢 突破之年。我們調整公司2019-2021年預測EPS為0.47/0.61/0.66元，按1 月10日H股股價5.85港幣，對應H股11.1/8.6/8.0倍PE，維持“增持”評級； 按12月10日A股股價9.13元，對應A股19.3/15.0/13.9倍PE。
風險提示：新產品銷售不及預期；價格戰加劇。
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