《专题》一表列出大摩料油价变动对「三桶油」股盈影响之敏感度分析
摩根士丹利本周二(7日)发表报告,最新对布兰特油价於2020年及2021年预测,每桶各为60.8及58.1美元,料长期预测为每桶60美元,同时列出布兰特油价於不同情境下对中资三大石油股(三桶油)2020年股盈预测影响:
油价情境│中石油(00857.HK)│中海油(00883.HK)│中石化(00386.HK)
2020年基本预测│股盈预测0.24元人币│股盈预测1.01元人币│股盈预测0.41元人币
布油每桶60美元情境│股盈预测0.22元人币│股盈预测0.98元人币│股盈预测0.4元人币
布油每桶70美元情境│股盈预测0.44元人币│股盈预测1.36元人币│股盈预测0.56元人币
布油每桶80美元情境│股盈预测0.63元人币│股盈预测1.68元人币│股盈预测0.7元人币
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油价情境│中石油股盈潜在变幅│中海油股盈潜在变幅│中石化股盈潜在变幅
布油每桶60升至70美元│+100%│+38.8%│+40%
布油每桶70升至80美元│+43%│+23.5%│+25%
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