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21世紀教育(1598.HK):完善佈局,京津冀民教龍頭蓄勢待發,方正證券(香港)給予“強烈推薦”, 目標價1.20港元
格隆匯 01-09 18:12

機構:方正證券(香港)

評級:強烈推薦

目標價:1.20港元

我們青睞21世紀教育,京津冀地區領先民辦教育集團。公司覆蓋教育的各階段,具有營收多元化及在業務層面上可以有效平衡政策風險的優勢。公司深耕素質教育和職業教育,兩者佔民辦教育市場規模超過一半及將迎來黃金髮展期,公司兩大事業羣具增長潛力。我們首次覆蓋21世紀教育,予公司“強烈推薦”評級,目標價1.20元。

·領先及多元化佈局民辦教育營辦商。21世紀教育集團是河北的領先及多元化佈局的民辦敎育營辦商。公司成立而來,佈局素質教育和職業教育,覆蓋整個教育的各階段,因此公司具有營收多元化及在業務層面上可以有效平衡政策風險的優勢。

·職業教育行業紅利持續釋放。2019年至今政府頒佈了一系列的激勵政策鼓勵發展高等職業教育,以加快發展現代職業教育,在職業教育迎來政策紅利及旺盛需求因素下,預期公司職業教育分部會繼續為公司提供穩定及可觀收入來源。

·全方位佈局-互聯網教育;新高考賽道;長三角市場。上市之後,公司積極併購,至今公佈簽約收購了3個外延併購的項目,向教育全產業鏈及其他市場佈局。按照國家要求在2020年前啟動“新高考”改革,改革提出“分類考試、綜合評價、多元錄取”,新高考在一個龐大高考市場規模再孕育衍生出另一個市場。2019年兩個收購填補於新高考賽道的空白;配合市場對非應試產品的需求,把握新高考機遇。

財務預測和投資建議。我們預測2019-2021年淨利潤分別為0.92/1.15/1.31億人民幣,對應EPS分別為0.084/0.11/0.12港元。我們給予21世紀教育目標價1.20港元,按11倍2020E市盈率及1.11港元/人民幣。首予21世紀教育“強烈推薦”評級。

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