郭家耀: 地缘政局降温港股料守28,000 阿里、美团及小米憧憬染蓝
正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称，美股周三(8日)反弹，美国总统特朗普表示无意对伊朗开战，消除市场对地缘政局气紧张气氛的忧虑，三大指数均录得升幅收市，纳指更再创出历史新高。美元走势向好，避险资金流出，美国十年期债息回升至1.87厘水平，油价及金价由高位大幅回吐。港股预托证券大致向好，预料大市早段跟随外围高开。内地股市走势偏软，市场关注外围局势发展，沪综指借势由高位回吐，收市下跌1.2%，失守3,100点水平，沪深两市成交额为7,792亿元人民币，继续保持活跃。
港股表现回软，大市早段一度跌穿28,000点水平，其後跌幅逐步收窄，28,000点关口失而复得，成交额保持理想。地缘政局风险降温，有利大市表现，预料指数可继续稳守28,000点水平，後市仍有望上试28,800点阻力。
另恒生指数公司将於今季就同股不同权及第二上市公司纳入恒指谘询市场，预计5月份季检时会有结果。若恒指公司同意将同股不同权及第二上市公司，符合纳入恒指、国指资格，阿里(09988.HK)、美团(03690.HK)及小米(01810.HK)，有望於今年陆续晋身为恒指成份股。恒指公司表示，第二上市公司市值计算方法，是计算在港注册的股份。中央结算持仓纪录显示，阿里存放股份总数逾47.5亿股，占已发行股份约22.1%，市值约1万亿元。恒指公司亦要求上市公司24个月平均市值及12个月平均成交符合规定，才有机会获纳入恒指。
不过，通过快速纳入规定，若检讨时上市公司市值达港股首五位，上市满三个月即可染蓝，排名6至15位，即可於上市後六个月纳入，排名16至20位，则可於上市後十二个月纳入。以此推算，阿里、美团及小米今年将会陆续符合要求，有望成为蓝筹。届时，恒指成份股组合将出现大幅变化，新经济股占比增加，有助提升指数的增长动力，不过随之而来的是指数整体波幅亦会加大。对港交所(00388.HK)而言，调整恒指成份组合，提升指数的认受性，指数相关的现货及期货产品交投更为活跃，成为其中一个主要受惠者。
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