大和:預計產險公司承保利潤改善 首選友邦(1299.HK)及中國財險(2328.HK)
大和發佈報告稱,預計產險公司的承保利潤改善,而壽險業的增長則好壞參半,內地及香港的保險業中,首選友邦(1299.HK)及中國財險(2328.HK)。該行表示,均予友邦保險、中國財險、中國人壽(2628.HK)及中國太平(0966.HK)“買入”評級,目標價分別為98港元、13.2港元、30港元及26港元;予中國平安(2318.HK)“持有”評級,目標價94港元。
該行表示,產險方面,儘管預期2020年的銷量增長緩慢,但車險的承保盈利能力將會好轉。中國銀保監會地方機構的整合正導致更嚴格的費用控制,預計非汽車業務將保持其綜合成本率(CoR),銷量更會快速增長。
整體而言,該行認為,內地領先的保險公司的淨資產收益率在去年下半年開始走高,其將持續3年。對於2020年,該行預計主要產險公司的CoR將同比增長40至100個基點。壽險方面,該行稱首年保費收入(FYP)及新業務價值在2020年將恢復至同比增長約10%。穩定的內含價值(EV)增長及股息收益率將為短期的支持因素。
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