大和:升中國建築(3311.HK)目標價至8港元 評級“跑贏大市”
大和發表研究報告,指與中國建築(3311.HK)
管理層會面後,重申公司“
跑贏大市
”評級,預期公司2019-21年每股盈利年複合增長率為20%,而港澳地區今年新增訂單維持強勁,因應公司正調整中國的業務結構,預期負債比率穩定和經營現金流可自2020年起有所改善。該行調升集團2020-21年每股盈利預期0.1-1.8%,以反映預期港澳地區前景樂觀,目標價由7.5
港
元升至8
港
元。
該行指,雖然香港近期有社會活動,但相信香港2019-20年訂單及收入增長仍然正面,主因需求強勁,以及市佔率增加。基於勞工成本低企、原材料價格穩定,相信香港項目的利潤可有改善。管理層對於澳門2019-21年基建投資增長亦感正面,並強調有數個新合同正在洽談中,包括賭場營運商建設項目。
該行又指,2019年為公司內地業務的過渡年,集團減少了PPP項目,轉移至更多政府定向回購(GTR)類別的新業務模式,對比PPP項目及BT項目,GTR項目的項目週期會更短(通常為4年),內報回報率更高(約20%),PPP傳統項目則為6-12%,但GTR項目利潤會較少,並有額外支出。公司冀今年國內新訂單有20%為GTR項目,以縮短整體項目週期,提升股本回報率,對長遠經營現金流有利。
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