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花旗:內地貸款轉掛LPR 招行(3968.HK)及工行(1398.HK)所受影響最輕
格隆匯 12-30 14:55

花旗發表的研究報告指,人行於12月28日宣佈自明年1月1日起所有新貸款將轉掛LPR,而現有浮息貸款亦將自明年3月1日起轉掛LPR,按揭貸款方面在下一定價日前則維持未變。

至於為何要將現有貸款轉掛LPR,花旗指出9月時已有約83%的新貸款是以LPR作定價,認為進一步深化利率開放屬自然發展,相信今次的舉措主要希望減輕實體經濟的借貸成本、推動信貸需求,而第三季的貨幣政策報告亦顯示減低借貸成本的措施未見效。花旗認為是次舉措將減少銀行在國企貸款方面的利潤,並推動銀行將更多貸款額度配置在普惠金融上,助借款人尋找更便宜的融資渠道。

該行指出在新措施下,按揭貸款利率在2021年1月1日前不會下跌,認為反映了當局政策清晰,在樓市上仍維持較緊的政策,相信將令市場失望。但該行認為對銀行而言則有更大誘因推動按揭貸款增長,主要因為按揭是唯一不受LPR下調負面影響的貸款,另外中小型銀行亦將面對更高的資本要求,需要增加在低風險加權資產方面的配置,當中包括是按揭等。

該行認為新措施對內銀淨息差或盈利影響將較市場預期輕,一來是因為貸款定價仍受供求影響,二來銀行可透過提升風險胃納及加長貸款來提升整體貸款收益率,另外該行亦估計人行在2020年將降準100至150個基點,同時亦有機會下調公開市場操作(OMO)利率,相信亦有助降低內銀的資金成本。在最差的情況下即使浮息貸款收益率在2020年下降20個基點,對內銀2020年平均淨息差影響僅8.3個基點,而對其税後溢利影響亦只是5.6%,當中招商銀行(03968.HK)及工商銀行(01398.HK)所受影響最輕,而中國光大銀行(06818.HK)及平安銀行(000001.SZ)則是主要受害者。

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