大摩:內地貸款全改掛鈎LPR較預期早 相信招行、郵儲行受負面影響較少
大摩發表報告指,雖內地貸款全面改以掛鈎LPR定價時間較預期早,不過因中國信貸供應及需求仍然平均,相信內銀未來兩年為貸款重新定價的能力有助支持其貸款收益率,相信內銀定價能力於明年將受到考驗,不同銀行的表現將有更大分野,主要顯示於淨利息收益率、股本回報率、內生資本能力及市佔率等方面。大摩認為,更快地過渡到全LPR貸款定價實際上或有助更快移除不明朗因素。
報告指出數個原因可支持內銀貸款收益率,包括預計未來十五個月按揭利率不會變動,LPR掛鈎貸款致貸息下降的影響不會全數自動轉嫁至銀行,另外相信銀行將轉移部份貸款至定息。該行相信具有較多市場導向業務及零售貸款佔比較高等因素的銀行表現將跑贏同業,相信招行(03968.HK)、平安銀行及郵儲行(01658.HK)所受負面影響將較少;由於在資訊科技及數據方面擁有優勢,工行(01398.HK)及建行(00939.HK)於國有銀行中之定價能力將較強。
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