永利澳門(1128.HK)首次覆蓋報告：VIP業務承壓，逐漸發展中場業務，給予“增持”評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
本報告導讀： 公司是高端中場和 VIP 業務的領先者，2019 年受宏觀經濟影響較大，隨着影響逐漸 弱化，公司有望再次迎來增長。
摘要：
我們預計永利澳門公司 2019-2021 年營業收入分別為 366.23 億港元、 389.30 億港元和 416.94 億港元，歸母淨利潤分別為 54.76 億港元、60.99 億港元和 68.45 億港元，對應 2019-2021 年 EPS 分別為 1.05、1.17 和 1.32 港元，EBITDA 分別為 95.22 億港元、101.22 億港元和 108.40 億 港元，給予“增持”評級。
公司是澳門博彩佼佼者。①公司 2019 年第三季度經營收益預計達到 10.72 億美元，經營成本預計達到 9.15 億美元。②2019 年第三季度娛 樂場收益預計達到 9.06 億美元，同比下降 19.72%。
永利澳門 VIP 業務有所下滑。①2019 年前三個季度，金沙中國的 VIP 業務收入同比下降 20.1%，至 160.82 億港元。②曾經 VIP 業務是澳門 博彩收入的主要來源， 2014 年的政策導致澳門博彩收入有所打擊。③ VIP 業務收入下跌較嚴重，除了受市場的影響外，公司表示還有部分原 因是永利澳門部分客房因翻新而暫停提供服務。
永利澳門中場業務將進一步發展。①中場業務收入同比增長 5.8%，至 137.21 億港元。②2014 年政策打擊後，各家公司紛紛尋思轉向少了中 間商賺差價、利潤更為豐厚、收入性質更具可持續性的中場業務。③ 在物業裝修過後，管理層表示將會有更多的資源分及中場業務，這也 有利於永利澳門的轉型發展。
風險提示：中美貿易糾紛對行業的影響；禁煙政策影響高於預期；宏 觀經濟景增速下行等。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
