摩通:電費上調幅度低於預期 惟對港燈及中電明年盈利無影響
摩根大通發表研究報告,指港燈(02638.HK)及中電(00002.HK)宣佈了2020年度的電費調整,而上調幅度較市場預期低。港燈將電費上調5.2%,中電則將平均總電價上調2.5%,兩電宣佈的電費上調均低於五年發展計劃中最初所述的金額。
該行認為,電費的加幅低於預期是由於考慮到當前的社會及經濟狀況,香港政府施壓希望令電費保持平穩。然而,該行不認為兩電2020年的盈利會因而受影響,因為它們仍能實現《管制計劃協議》中所述的8%准許回報率。如有需要,兩電可在電費穩定基金(TSF)中提取資金以彌補差額。
截至2019上半年,兩家公司的TSF餘額均較原來至到2019年底的預期高,這是由於今年來的銷量增長高於預期,加上更嚴格的成本控制。因此,兩電均預期TSF餘額將會在2019年穩步增長,讓它們有空間可以延遲上調部分電費。
港燈及中電的股價自11月份以來下跌大約2.5%,同期恆指跌1.7%。該行相信電費加幅低於預期的消息已大致在市場反映出來,維持中電“增持”投資評級,並繼續預期公司今年的派息增長達3%。
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