信義光能(0968.HK):比預期更強勁的海外需求,重申“買入“評級
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:5.70港元
2019年前10個月全國新增電源裝機達71.17吉瓦,同比跌20.8%。其中,火電/水電/核電/風電/太陽能分別於期內新增了32.4吉瓦/2.9吉瓦/4.1吉瓦/14.7吉瓦和17.1吉瓦的發電裝機容量,分別相當於+20.0% /-58.8% / -13.2%/+1.3%/-53.1%的同比增長。
我們調低國內於2019年的新增光伏裝機容量預測至30吉瓦。鑑於2019年前三季度少於20吉瓦的新增光伏裝機,我們下修了2019年的新增光伏裝機預測至30吉瓦。然而,我們預計海外市場於2019年的新增裝機容量將達到約90吉瓦,較2018年新增的58吉瓦同比大升55.2%。強勁的海外增長意味着全球於2019年仍將錄得約18%的同比新增裝機增長。
光伏玻璃的銷售價格於2019年迄今反彈了近21%。在比預期更強勁的海外市場對光伏材料需求的拉動下,光伏玻璃的售價逐步回升並於2019年9月時達到了每平米28元人民幣,並進一步於2019年12月初時達到了每平米29元人民幣。當前價格較年初時回升了近21%。我們預計光伏玻璃的價格上行將延續至2020年。
我們重申“買入”的投資評級並進一步上調目標價至5.70港元。新目標價相當於19.1倍/15.0倍/11.7倍2019至2021年市盈率或3.2倍/2.8倍/2.4倍2019至2021年市淨率。

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