申洲國際(2313.HK)重大事件快評:可持續發展趨勢確定,迎接產能加速釋放,維持“買入”評級
機構:國信證券
評級:買入
目標價:124.7-129.3 港元
事項:
2019 年11 月 25 日至 28 日,公司組織了投資者參觀柬埔寨和越南生產基地調研活動,交流了產能建設進展與計劃。
國信觀點:1)產能未來有望加速釋放,預計 19-22 年產能增長分別為 11%/13%/14.5%/14.8%;2)自動化、信息化繼 續推進,效率持續提升;3)優厚待遇人才聚集,高標準ESG 確保高質量發展。4)投資建議:公司生產硬實力與ESG 軟實力決定長期增長空間廣闊,建議把握新增產能投產的加倉機會。我們維持盈利預測,預計公司 19-21 年淨利潤增速 分別為 13.4%/20%/20.7%,EPS 分別為 3.42/4.11/4.96 元,當前股價對應19-21 年的 PE 分別為 27.1x/22.6x/18.7x,並 未充分反映公司核心競爭力與產能提升效率,維持合理估值為 124.7-129.3 港元(2020 PE 27-28x),維持“買入”評級。
評論:
產能建設有序,未來有望加速釋放 擴建進度符合預期,未來三年迎來加速釋放期。根據公司目前德利成衣產能的爬坡目標,以及過去 3 年世通成衣產能的 爬坡節奏,我們預計公司的未來每個新建成衣工廠均在其投產的第 2-3 年產生較大的產能增長貢獻。越南德利工廠、柬 埔寨新項目一期、越南世通Adidas 專用工廠將在 19-21 年逐年開始招聘投產,新增產能疊加後有望推動公司總產能的快 速增長。
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