交银国际:内地超级猪周期加剧短期通胀 沪指明年底部料2,700点
交银国际(03329.HK)今日(3日)举行2020年投资展望发布会,指全球经济周期筑底修复。该行称,2019年确实是「峰回路转」的一年,与2018年底时普遍的悲观情绪相反。现在,中国经济周期领先指标正在见顶,并很可能在未来几个月开始放缓。考虑到中国经济周期指标的领先性,假设贸易谈判能取得一定的进展,中国经济的名义变量(如工业增加值和公司盈利增速等)应该会开始修复。
在中国经济周期指标率先回升之後,欧美的经济周期也正在筑底。尽管如此,这些都是同步或滞後的经济变化。2018年的抛售潮後,市场已经显着反弹。因此,市场价格在2019年的涨势,很可能已经反映了这些滞後经济变量现在的回暖,除非今後基本面的改善大幅超预期,从而进一步大幅推升股市。
不过,交银国际表示,中国的超级猪周期使短期通胀前景恶化。猪瘟摧毁的中国生猪存栏量几乎相当於整个欧盟的猪存栏。中国生猪存栏量的变化往往领先猪价上涨约六个月。因此,通胀压力很可能持续飙升到春节过後,并在短期内限制货币政策的选择。这种货币政策的困窘很可能会阻碍股市短期上行的动能和空间。
该行称,在未来的十二个月内,上证综指的交易区间底部很可能约2,700,而上证850天移动均线始终不能突破自2010年以来3,200点的顶部。即使指数的现价或可暂时突破该水平,这个长期移动平均线的潜在趋势还是在下降的。该行的股债收益率模型的交易区间实际预测分布是2,500至3,500。除非引入外来因素,例如国外流动性的大量流入,否则中国股市将仍然是一场零和博弈。
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