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花旗:內房商11月銷售優預期 首選融創(1918.HK)等七股
格隆匯 12-02 13:55
花旗發表報告表示,據其追蹤第三方代理數據,34個上市的內房商11月銷售數據,按年上升28%優於市場預期(10月按年升33%、9月升30%),雖然較10月按月跌6%,指11月銷售強勁反映發展商推售新盤,及迎來當地更有利的政策環境,該行估計內房商12月銷售回升趨勢可持續。
該行指,內房於今年首十一個月銷售按年增長20%(對比首十月按年增長19%),顯示已鎖定全年銷售目標93%,從11月銷售按年增長而言,越秀地產(0123.HK) 按年升206%、中國奧園(3883.HK) 升99%(因基數較低)、深圳控股(0604.HK) 升97%、美的置業(3990.HK) 增長81%、碧桂園(2007.HK) 升71%、旭輝(0884.HK) 增69%、及世房(0813.HK) 升60%,而融創中國(1918.HK) (按年升48%至665億人民幣)、時代中國(1233.HK) (按年升36%至84億人民幣)及旭輝(按年升69%至220億人民幣)銷售亦錄近月度新高。
花旗估計,內房12月銷售可按年升8%,相信2019年全年可按年增長19%(對比目標升15%),並估計2020年銷售可按年升13%,並估計世房今年銷售可達原目標118%、龍湖(0960.HK) 今年可達原目標111%、中國金茂(0817.HK) 及中駿置業(1966.HK) 今年銷售均可達原目標107%。
該行估計,內地將有更多二線、三線城市調整樓市政策,並關注樓市明年下行情況能否得到穩着,並認為內房股行業前景迎來政策支持,該行的行業首選包括融創中國、世房、旭輝、龍光(3380.HK) 、龍湖集團、華潤置地(1109.HK) 及時代中國(1233.HK)
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