中國生物製藥(01177.HK)：業績符合預期，腫瘤板塊繼續擴張，維持“買入”評級
機構：西南證券
評級：買入
事件：公司2019]年前三季度實現收入193.2億元（+22.8%），其中新產品收入佔比為20.6%；歸母淨利潤22.6億元（+2.5%），調整後歸母淨利潤26億元（+15.7%），總體現金流61.4億元（-2.7%），總體符合預期。
業績符合預期，抗腫瘤板塊持續發力。從收入端看：2019前三季度肝病、抗腫瘤和心腦血管板塊產品依舊佔據主導地位，收入分別為49.7、42和25億元，收入佔比分別為25.7%、21.8%以及12.9%。1）其中肝病品種受帶量採購影響，收入佔比同比降低6.1pp（即增速為-1%），預計將來還會持續萎縮。2）腫瘤板塊增速達到83.4%，收入佔比同比提升7.2pp，一躍成為公司第二大核心板塊；其中安羅替尼收入估計21億元，全年有望衝刺30億，即增速可達到134%；雷替曲塞銷售額達5.4億元（+40%），預計全年超7億元；達沙替尼和硼替佐米收入分別為1.8億元（+47.6%）和1.3億元（211.6%），長勢喜人；從研發管線中豐富的重磅抗腫瘤仿製藥/生物類似藥以及1類新藥儲備來看，該板塊未來將會成為公司最核心的增長動力。從盈利能力看：2019年前三季度公司毛利率、銷售費用率與上年同期基本持平，較為穩定。
研發投入持續創新高，重磅品種已進入收穫期：2019年前三季度公司研發費用為20.5億元（+20.6%），持續創新高。2019年7月至今，公司共收穫8項批件，其中安羅替尼新增軟組織肉瘤以及小細胞肺癌兩個適應症，加上非小細胞肺癌，預計已獲批適應症峯值銷售將達到60億元；此外託法替布以及阿比特龍均為重磅品種，原研藥峯值銷售額分別達到22億美元（預計今年達到峯值）以及35億美元；抗血栓藥替格瑞洛獲得FDA的暫定批准，表明公司的生產和管理能力達到國際先進水平；公司侖伐替尼的上市申請獲CDE受理，或成為首仿品種，原研藥預計2021年專利到期，若2020年公司專利挑戰成功有望超預期上市；PD-1品種預計今年底以cHL適應症2期數據提交上市申請，有望於2020年獲批上市；呼吸系統重磅品種布地奈德預計2020年上市，有望衝刺7億元銷售額；阿達木單抗、凝血因子VIII等大品種均有望於2020年上市。
盈利預測與評級：預計公司19-21年收入及歸母淨利潤複合增速分別為20%、22%，EPS分別為人民幣0.28/0.34/0.42元，對應PE為36X/30X/25X。維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：藥品大幅降價的風險，研發進度不及預期的風險，新產品上市進度或不及預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
