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《大行報告》中信建投予阿里巴巴(09988.HK)「買入」評級 目標價224元
阿思達克 11-27 11:40

中信建投發表報告表示,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)完成在香港第二上市,發行5億股新股,另有7,500萬股超額認購權,按照每股176港元的定價,阿里巴巴最多在港集資1,012億港元,該行認為香港第二上市,完善了阿里巴巴全球資本布局。另外阿里巴巴在港股的股票跟美國的阿里巴巴ADR可以相互轉換,參考華泰證券的GDR和騰訊的ADR,該行認為未來股票和ADR的價差會比較小。另一方面,因為阿里巴巴屬於第二上市且同股不同權,所以短期內還不會納入滬港通。該行認為參考同股不同權的入選標準,需要六個月的等待時間。

該行指,維持對阿里巴巴「買入」評級,予其美國存託股份(ADR)目標價為229美元,對應港股股價為224港元,該行估計阿里於2020財年至2022財年度活躍買家數分別為7.33億、8.21億及9.11億,廣告貨幣化率分別為2.62%、2.7%及2.8%,佣金率分別為2.33%、2.5%及2.6%。

中信建投認為,阿里巴巴買家數還有2億增長空間。阿里巴巴的國內活躍買家數為6.93億,螞蟻金服國內的活躍用戶數是9億,兩者合併的活躍用戶數為9.6億,所以該行認為活躍買家數至少還有2億的增長空間,可以借助螞蟻金服來導流。阿里巴巴收到螞蟻金服33%的股權後,兩者的協作將更加緊密,推動普惠金融和電商下沉。現階段,考慮到整體廣告市場放緩,該行認為貨幣化率將不會快速上升,現階段主要的目標還是增加用戶數和提高ARPU。

該行稱,交叉銷售的空間較大。目前阿里巴巴國內零售的活躍買家數已達6.93億,但是其中只有25%的用戶使用過零售以外的業務,所以生態內部導流的空間巨大。

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