中國奧園(03883.HK)：力爭在2020年躋身20強，重申“買入”評級，目標價14.30港元
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
目標價：14.30港元
奧園上週出席了我們公司舉辦的地產企業日。奧園在2019年首10個月錄得合約銷售886億元（人民幣，下同），同比增長31%，達到1,141億元銷售目標的78%。公司擁有6,450億元可售資源，力爭在2020年躋身20強開發商之列。我們維持目標價14.3港元，盈利預測維持不變。重申買入評級。
首10個月合約銷售增長31%。奧園公佈，2019年10月合約銷售額同比增長55%至100億元。2019年1至10月的累計合約銷售額為886億元，同比增長31%。公司完成全年銷售目標1,141億元的78%。根據CEIC的數據，以2019年首10個月的銷售總額計算，奧園在國內開發商中排名第27位。雖然奧園未有透露其2020年的銷售計劃，但暗示希望在2020年躋身20強。
城市更新項目可帶來2,200億元可售資源。奧園積極參與城市更新項目的發展，手上有30個相關項目，總建築面積1,604萬平方米，預計這30個項目將帶來約2,197億元的可售資源。公司最近接手珠海翠微村的舊改更新項目，可售面積及可售資源分別為57萬平方米和200億元。結合現有土儲，奧園的可售資源總額達到6,452億元，為公司的未來發展提供充足的支持。
收購百年人壽13.86%權益尚待審批。今年7月，奧園宣佈以32.6億元收購百年人壽13.86%權益，目前項目正在等待審批，結果將在明年1月公佈。百年人壽已覆蓋國內20個省市，並在2018年錄得利潤6.97億元，收入來源穩定，亦補足了奧園於2019年3月分拆上市的奧園健康生活（3662HK，未評級）的業務發展。
維持目標價和盈利預測不變。重申買入評級。我們維持目標價及盈利預測不變。截至2019年6月，奧園預售及未入賬物業總額達到1,390億元，足以支撐未來兩年的盈利可見度。奧園在大灣區擁有土儲756萬平方米，儲備貨值相等於1,100億元，將繼續受惠於大灣區的強勁發展趨勢。
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