楓葉教育(1317.HK)FY19年度業績預覽：升學率繼續提升，內生外延齊發力，維持“買入”評級，目標價3.8港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：3.8港元
投資要點
2019年升學率繼續提升，楓葉全球百強學校錄取率達到71.3%：截至2019年9月，楓葉2019屆高中畢業生中已有122名學生被世界十強大學錄取，超過2018屆整體99名記錄再創新高。回顧近年來，楓葉高中畢業生考取全球百強名校的比例從2012屆的38%上升至2018屆的68%再到2019屆的71.3%，彰顯了公司不斷提升的優質辦學實力。
內生外延齊發力：2019財年公司完成了兩單收購，分別為收購襄陽7所幼兒園（並表全年）及四川瀘州七中佳德中小學校（並表7個月）。自建方面，2018/19年度公司規劃偏向老校擴建，釋放了天津、重慶兩所利用率高的老校區學位及自建了鹽城學校。2018/19學年公司旗下學生人數達到41380人，同比增長38%，扣除外延1380名襄陽幼兒園學生及3200名四川瀘州七中學生，內生同比增長達到22.7%，維持高增速。2019/20學年公司截至10月15日在校學生人數為41508人，同比增長13.5%，扣除收購外的學生內生增速為5%，仍在朝着金字塔型生源結構改善。
制定六五規劃，預計五年內人數提升至9萬人：展望六五，公司計劃截止六五規劃末期要成立十個大區，生源自給90%-95%左右，外部招生會越來越少。五五規劃末公司計劃達到在校生4.5萬人，六五規劃末計劃再增加一倍預計達到9萬人左右，並預計在兩年內進入北京。根據公司已簽訂天津生態城新校與呼和浩特新校區建設規劃，預計未來仍可提供穩健內生增長。
維持“買入”評級，下調目標價至3.8港元，生源結構調整仍在進行時：基於生源結構原因帶動學生內生增速放緩影響，我們下調盈利預測，預計公司2019-2021財年收入分別為15.9、18.1和21.1億元人民幣（下同），分別同比增長18.2%、13.9%和16.9%；調整後淨利潤分別為6.9、7.8和8.8億元，分別同比增長14.8%、13.6%和12.6%。維持公司“買入”評級，下調目標價至3.8港元，對應2019-2021財年PE分別為15、13、12倍，當前價格僅對應2019財年8.8倍PE，已被低估。
風險提示：1）國家教育政策變動；2）公司收購、自建等擴張進程不達預期；3）學生、家長對教學質量滿意度下降；4）VIE架構政策風險。
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