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花旗:中國5年期LPR下調利好地產股 首選世房(0813.HK)等
格隆匯 11-21 17:00

花旗發表研究報告指,中國央行在貸款市場報價利率(LPR)改革後首次下調5年期品種的利率,早於預期。利率下調整體有利於房地產等高槓杆行業的前景,世茂房地產(0813.HK)、旭輝控股(0884.HK)、龍光地產(3380.HK)、融創中國(1918.HK)、龍湖集團(0960.HK)等為行業首選。

花旗指,儘管只下調了5個基點,但這意味着新的流動性週期開啟,預計未來12個月在非食品CPI穩定、PPI持弱的情況下,還會有漸進及定期的下調。花旗續指,房地產政策在一二線城市可能保持穩定,對更低線城市,明年政策焦點在於如何助力房價止跌。在接下來的政治局會議和年底的中央經濟工作會議中,對房地產政策的定調可能會更温和。

另外,花旗指,LPR利率下調將直接降低居民房貸利率,不過目前對購房者的月供影響有限,房地產開發商5年期以上的貸款也會受益。預計2020年,上市的中資開發商能維持13%的銷售成長,像世茂和旭輝等中間梯隊或能實現20-30%的增長。

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