復星旅遊文化(1992.HK)：聚焦中高端需求，引領休閒度假市場，給予“買入”評級
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
報告摘要：中高端休閒度假龍頭，FOLIDAY生態日益豐富。公司是全球領先的休閒度假服務商，通過產業運營+戰略投資雙輪驅動，持續引領休閒度假市場。公司業務通過度假村、旅遊目的地、度假服務及解決方案三大板塊展開，以家庭用户旅遊需求為中心，以度假村及目的地資產為載體，通多個觸點與客户互動，不斷吸引優質內容和IP，進而提升用户體驗&粘性，FOLIDAY生態體系不斷完善。以高端旅遊資產為載體，兼具成長和抗週期屬性。
度假村：ClubMed底藴豐厚、佈局全球，一價全包+GO體系形成差異化優勢，未來成長空間來自度假村擴容+結構升級，有望實現量價共振。旅遊目的地：三亞亞特蘭蒂斯聚焦高端、一騎絕塵，借海南政策東風&海棠灣區位優勢，開業首年業績亮眼，伴隨客流持續攀升、配套設施&服務不斷完善，未來各項數據仍有提升空間，有望成為現金牛業務。麗江&太倉新項目預計2020年分階段完工，將接力成長。
基於度假場景的服務和解決方案：以泛秀和迷你營為代表，為客户提供多樣化體驗&服務；依託FOLIDAY平台&酷怡，強化銷售網絡；此外，藉助會員忠誠計劃提供會員優惠服務，增強客户粘性。
投資建議：預計公司19-20年營收168.09億/168.94億元，剔除IFRS16影響後歸母淨利潤為6.6億/8.1億，對應P/E17倍/14倍。剔除IFRS16影響後經調整的EBITDA為25.02億/28.42億，其中旅遊運營相關16.37億/19.60億。分部估值，旅遊運營採用EV/EBITDA估值，對應EV為164億；麗江&太倉項目按土地所有權公允價值估值（假設年均增長10%），對應EV為48億。公司合理EV為212億，目標市值156億人民幣。給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：宏觀經濟波動風險；災害事件；項目延遲。
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