阿里巴巴-SW(9988.HK)：電子商務巨頭，全球最大的網上貿易市場
機構：國泰君安
阿里巴巴集團(9988.HK)為全球最大的網上貿易市場，電子商務行業巨頭。短中期來看：I.公司核心零售業務增速穩健，雲業務增長迅猛；III.新零售佈局初顯成效，數字化轉型業內標杆；III.按公司招股價，估值合理。建議投資者可將阿里巴巴納入觀察範圍。
阿里巴巴集團簡介：阿里巴巴集團(簡稱：阿里巴巴)為全球最大的網上貿易市場，電子商務行業巨頭。2014年9月19日，阿里巴巴集團在紐約證券交易所正式掛牌上市，股票代碼“BABA”。根據市場報告，截至2020財年第二季度，阿里巴巴中國零售市場移動月活躍用户達7.85億；年度活躍消費者6.93億。阿里巴巴已成為一個涵蓋消費者、商家、品牌、零售商、第三方服務提供商、戰略合作伙伴及其他企業的數字經濟體平台和服務商。
阿里巴巴商業模式：阿里巴巴集團創立於1999年。業務模式，包括：I.核心電商業務：該業務分為國內零售、國內批發、國際零售、國際批發、菜鳥網絡和客户服務六個部分。其核心商務業務為集團收入的主要來源，截至2020財年第二季度，阿里巴巴核心商業零售業務收入為1012.20億元（人民幣,下同），佔總營收的85%，同比增長40%。
II.雲計算業務：目前，阿里雲在亞太市場坐穩頭把交椅，在全球市場坐三望二，值得注意的是本季度阿里雲取得營收92.91億元，在總營收中佔比8%；同比增長64%。並且領先亞馬遜AWS35%及微軟Azure59%的增速。
III.數字媒體和娛樂業務：隨着阿里完成大文娛的整合，文娛板塊和核心商業板塊的協同效應正在慢慢體現，本季度文娛板塊虧損率由35%收窄至30%。可見阿里的嚴控內容成本，重內容自制、用户體驗和付費增長的調整有所成效。
IV.創新項目及技術發展：在創新業務中最具代表性的就是螞蟻金服，目前旗下有支付寶、螞蟻財富、芝麻信用、網商銀行及螞蟻金融雲五個主體。
估值及建議：目前，根據市場估值，我們假設阿里巴巴在香港上市之後溢價15%，按照目前阿里巴巴市值4,772.6億美元計算，目標價格204.5港元，對應19年和20年預測市盈率分別為28.6x和24.7x，公司估值合理。短中期來看：I.公司核心零售業務增速穩健，雲業務增長迅猛；III.新零售佈局初顯成效，數字化轉型業內標杆；III.按公司招股價，估值合理。建議投資者可將阿里巴巴納入觀察範圍。
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