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中國財險(02328.HK):2019年首三季度業績好於預期,維持“中性“評級,目標價10.56港元
格隆匯 11-15 15:34

機構:國泰君安

評級:中性

目標價:10.56港元

中國財險(02328HK)的未經審計的2019年首3季度業績好於我們的預期。總保費在2019年第三季度同比增長8.6%至人民幣968億元,將2019年首3季度保費增長拖至13.1%。車險保費在2019年第三季度錄得2.0%的同比下滑,非車險保費則保持快速的增長。我們預計2019年第三季度的承保表現出現了改善,主要是受到車險手續費率下降的驅動。受益於税率的正常化,淨利潤在2019年第三季度實現了2.51倍的增長,達到人民幣51億元。該業績因為承保改善而好於我們的預期。

中國財險計劃實現技術變革與商業模式變革的融合以及政策性業務與商業性業務的融合。在投資者開放日上,中國財險的管理層介紹了公司的兩個融合策略:1/技術變革與商業模式變革的融合,和2/政策性業務與商業性業務的融合。我們認為,公司憑藉其國企背景通過與政府的合作改善客户體驗。對於同業公司而言,這種商業模式並不容易模仿。

我們調高目標價至10.56港元但維持“中性”的投資評級以反映車險上的擔憂。我們將2019年目標市淨率提高至1.33倍,相當於10.56港元的目標價。儘管承保表現出現了一些改善,我們對於車險的擔憂依舊存在。此外,車險費率改革預計將在長期內給車險承保帶來壓力。因此,我們維持對於中國財險的“中性”投資評級。

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