中芯國際(00981.HK)：先進製程穩步推進，中期盈利能力迎來改善，維持“增持”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：增持
核心觀點：
3Q收入與利潤符合預期
公司公佈3Q財報，其中：1)營業收入8.16億(單位：美元，下同)，QoQ(下同)為3.2%，超出指引(0%~2%)；2)毛利率20.8%，符合指引(19%~21%)；3)歸母淨利率（剔除出售LFoundry獲得的收益0.814億）由2.3%上升到4.1%，改善幅度(+1.8%)與毛利率改善幅度(+1.7%)基本一致，二者的改善主要得益於產能利用率的大幅提升（從91%提升至97%）。
4Q毛利率指引超出預期，公司中期盈利能力將有明顯改善
公司4Q毛利率指引為23%-25%，這顯著超出19年前三季度毛利率平均水平（19.5%），主要是受益產能利用率的繼續提升以及LFoundry的出售（前期LFoundry的產能利用率一直處於較低水平）。考慮到產業逐漸回暖以及公司將充分享受半導體國產化浪潮，我們仍看好公司中長期盈利能力的改善。
先進製程進度符合預期，維持“增持”評級
先進製程方面“第一代FinFET已成功量產，四季度將貢獻有意義的營收；第二代FinFET研發穩步推進，客户導入進展順利。”，這符合我們前期對“梁孟鬆的加入將持續為公司輸入先進的Foundry管理經驗，公司先進製程有望持續超預期落地”的判斷。雖然當前投資者對公司的關注主要聚焦在先進製程的進展，然基於：1）產業逐漸回暖；2）華為加速半導體國產化進程，公司作為Foundry產業的龍頭公司有望率先受益；3）公司對明年將重啟比較強勁增長的判斷，我們在梁孟鬆加入公司以來的平均PB（1.1倍）的基礎上上調20%至1.3倍以反映公司盈利能力的明顯改善。我們預測公司19-21年歸母淨利潤分別為2.11/1.19/0.87億美元。綜合來看，公司19年合理價值為12.6港元/股，繼續維持“增持”評級。
風險提示
全球宏觀經濟不及預期的風險，公司先進製程進展不達預期的風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
